The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. An independent estimate of private-sector employment and pay, the report is based on data derived from ADP client payrolls.
The monthly report is distributed free of charge as part of ADP’s commitment to provide labor-market insight to businesses, governments, and the public. based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
The ADP National Employment Report (NER) presents independent measures of the U.S. labor market based on ADP payroll data covering more than half a million companies with more than 25 million employees.
The ADP NER provides a high-frequency, weekly measure of U.S. private-sector employment. In addition, it presents regular measures of wages or earnings for defined samples or segments of the U.S. workforce.
ADP payroll data include payroll transactions data – when a person is paid and how much – as well as administrative data on who is on the company payroll (even if they are not paid in the current pay period), and characteristics of the employer and employee.
We use a business-level database that provides aggregated counts of employment at the level of an ADP Payroll Account. An ADP client company may have one or more Payroll Account. As an approximation, we consider a Payroll Account a business establishment (i.e., a company work location).
We also use a person-level database of payroll transactions that enables us to construct a matched-persons sample to measure changes in wages or earnings over time.
With ADP data, we can measure how many employees are on company payrolls (Payroll Employment) as well as how many employees were paid in a given pay period (Paid Employment). Both measures are of interest, and together provide a richer understanding of the labor market.
Payroll Employment shows how many people have an attachment to an employer in the labor market, while Paid Employment shows how many people are actively working and earning income in the labor market at any given time. The relationship between the two measures may vary across segments of the labor market (e.g., industry, geography, company size) or over time (e.g., recession, pandemic, natural disaster).
Because the underlying ADP payroll databases are continuously updated, we can create high-frequency, near real-time measures of U.S. employment. Also, ADP payroll data at the person level (in addition to the establishment level) enables more detailed, richer analysis.
In the world of economics, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as a crucial indicator of a country’s economic health. The performance of GDP reflects the overall growth or contraction of a nation’s economy. In this blog post, we will delve into the current economic landscape of Germany and examine whether the German GDP will experience a positive trend in the upcoming quarter.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
Frequency: Released monthly. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, second release and Final. Both the advance the second release are tagged as preliminary in the economic calendar.
Several factors impacted our revised forecast this month. Q2 2023 real GDP growth came in much stronger than expected (although large revisions to the advance estimate are likely) and monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure growth reaccelerated in June. Additionally, our consumer confidence index saw meaningful improvement in both June and July. Presently, we acknowledge that the likelihood of a ‘soft landing’ for the economy is rising, but we continue to believe that a very short and shallow recession is the more likely scenario.
Looking into 2024, we expect the volatility that dominated the US economy over the pandemic period to diminish. In the second half of 2024, we forecast that overall growth will return to more stable pre-pandemic rates, inflation will drift closer to 2 percent, and the Fed will lower rates to near 4 percent. However, due to an aging labor force we expect tightness in the labor market to remain an ongoing challenge for the foreseeable future.