Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) forecast: 5-1-2024

Introduction :

Non-farm payroll refers to the change in jobs in the economy that excludes farm workers, household employees, and nonprofit employees. A key indicator of the labour market, the statistic is released by the Labor Department.

Today’s given signal :

Indicators of Non-Farm Payroll

To gauge whether the U.S. economy is heading for a recession, finance professionals or market participants can use the non-farm payroll. When determining whether to take long or short positions in companies that influence non-farm payrolls, it can help determine an investor’s overall strategy.

When non-farm payrolls are released on Friday, you can take a market position that will ride the volatility if you anticipate they will be better or worse than expected.

For employees considering changing careers or sectors, the non-farm payroll can provide insight into the state of the various markets and whether or not they are hiring. Career and employment strategies can be developed using this tool.

The nonfarm payrolls report is released every month, usually on the first Friday, and has a significant impact on the US dollar, bonds and stocks. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. For detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of nonfarm workers on nonfarm payrolls, Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys 141,000 businesses and government agencies.

Previous released data results :

In December 2023, it’s projected that the US added approximately 170K jobs, a slight decrease from November’s addition of 199K jobs. It would mark the third consecutive month with job gains below the average monthly gain of 240K over the past year, with gains mostly concentrated in the government, health care and leisure and hospitality sectors. Despite this trend, payrolls would still rise enough to accommodate the growing working-age population, indicating a return to pre-pandemic labour market conditions. Adding 170K jobs in December, the total job gains for 2023 would reach 2.7 million, the smallest annual gain since 2019. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen rising to 3.8% from 3.7%, close to January 2022-highs. A slower pace of wage growth of 0.3% is anticipated, reducing annual wage growth to a fresh low of 3.9% since June 2021.

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